I agree to 100%.
From my experience travelling especially in these SEA emerging markets, and talking there to film shooters, labs and film shops, the film revival has been really huge in these countries, with yearly growth rates for color film in the 20-40% range. And we are talking about markets with a total population of about 2 billion people.
This growth is now completely gone, killed by Kodak Alaris price increases. Even worse, the demand is declining now there.
Respooled film has been a way to at least attenuate the negative effects on demand in these markets. When this will not be possible anymore, too, the decrease in general film demand will be even more significant.
And both EK and KA will suffer from that in the mid- and long-term.
The fact that Kodak lost 95 plus percent of its film users to digital is, ipso facto, the proof it is not a monopoly. Just because there are a few die hard users of film still doesn't make it a monopoly and even they to a large degree will switch to digital if the prices get too high.
I've had the interesting experience of being a millenial that picked up film during the digital revolution and great recession, so bridge the experience of legacy cheap film with digital as a substitute to have become a very valued media for its qualities and flaws as well as getting high price increases post pandemic. I've never been a user of respooled film (except one roll of Cinestill 800T) so I have all but ignored ECN2 and still keep buying Brand Kodak C41. However, being a Medium format shooter limits this quite a bit.
It was positive that when I had film developed at a small HK lab, that their perception was that film has been quite booming and them being a 2 person operation, were having a lot of work; plus they said that film is much appreciated nowadays. Also, about the price differences of 2020-2025.
If I may simplify the user groups, the traditional boomer to X generation saw film as substitute (digital vs film), whereas nowadays it has become subsitutive or we just have it serve a niche. Yes I have a great phone, compact, digital set of cameras but it's not the same as film on my medium format camera.
If my Dad was still with us, and I told him that Kodak was making film for Fuji, he would be aghast!
It occurs to me that I don't know whether the Kodak lab he worked at for nearly a quarter century (as customer service manager) would have accepted a roll of E6 Fujichrome for processing.
I bet it would be incredible if we'd tell that to the past! I recently saw an interview to the owner of a photographic chain, which paraphrasing him, Digital swept the business very quickly and swiftly and then came the 2008 crisis to nail the coffin. As it has been discussed elsewhere (I think even PE validated it), the Photographic industry had huge margins then and after all this time even standalone digital cameras have declined.
Do recall myself the pessimistic, discontinuation after discontinuation period. But had come myself to late as to be able to try Agfa, Konica and other color film by the bygone manufacturers. We will have to see how long the progress will be for Harman to bring something to that quality.
And finally, the elephant in the room, CineStill. Yes, I believe they almost certainly had their finger in the pie. I do not like them as a company for reasons that are not relevant to the discussion. But I think it’s worth noting that, from what I’ve read and been told, no one will ever get bulk cine deals like CineStill. No one will ever get bulk pricing on any film like CineStill. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t been paying very much attention.
Now that I’ve put that out there, I can go about enjoying my evening, hopefully figuring out a way to cut rollfilm backing paper that doesn’t require several thousand dollars of equipment.
I would love 220 for travel! Cinestill are in cahoots with EK, or have a special agreement at least for the remjetless manufacturing. IMO it's good they are filling the gap of Kodak branded chemistry as a distributor but their films are even more expensive than KA's own.
So you think it is fair to critize Fujifilm for serving the market with color negative film much much longer than Agfa, Konica, Ferrania and Lucky?
The current monopoly situation is a result of the fact that all those five have not been able to continue production.
But I would not be surprised if Fujifilm is restarting their color negative film production next year. When their latest huge 30 Mio. $ investment in their (instax) film production is finished (due to their press release these factory upgrades should be completed this year).
At least Fujifilm as a monopolist is behaving much much more consumer friendly than Kodak Alaris:
- Fujifilm has now a de-facto monopoly in silver-halide RA-4 photo paper. But despite that they have kept their prices extremely low. No monopoly mark-up at all.
- Almost the same in instant film: Fujifilm has more than 90% market share. Nevertheless their instant films have become even much cheaper over the years (if you consider and calculate inflation, about 30% cheaper than 15 years ago!).
Bless and hoping that Fuji come back in C41, with additional availability of E6 and not just cash cow Instax. As to the same lines at the beginning of the post, I tend to remember how in the late 2000s there were discussions around here about who would be the "last standing" film manufacturer; and at that time the odds were given to Fuji. Top of my mind, it seems Kodak brought back more color (roll) film products in the 2015-20s than Fuji. E100 and Gold 200 120 whereas Fuji progressively discontinued 160NS, 400H, Superia, etc. Not much is said to Jeff Clarke, the CEO who avoided the plan of Kodak's board to just shut down the whole film operation; Kodak film was to be no more if that had happened in 2014/5.